A decline in forex reserves; GDA calls for level playing field
In Brief
ECONOMY
There's no way out of IMF loans, Finance Minister
On 16 November, Finance Minister Shamshad Akhtar announced that the government has postponed its intentions to issue USD 1.5 billion in international bonds. she emphasized that the country will need to apply for new IMF loan programs for a while as long as the economy is still unstable. Her words were made the day after the government and the IMF agreed at the staff level about a nine-month rescue plan. The government's commitment to regular tariff changes, including a scheduled gas price hike in January to prevent the building of circular debt in both the gas and electricity sectors, was reaffirmed by Dr Akhtar during a press conference on the key elements of the IMF deal. In addition to moving their management to the private sector as soon as feasible and institutionalizing the continuing war against power and gas theft, she added that the pricing for gas and electricity will be "continuously revised" and their costs regulated. She added that in addition, Pakistan would have to fully follow the exchange rate set by the market, continue to respond to core inflation through appropriate monetary policy adjustments, and bring four more state-owned businesses into compliance with the recently approved SOE law's financing and governance guidelines. (Khaleeq Kiani, “No way out of IMF loans anytime soon, says Finance Minister Shamshad,” Dawn, 17 November 2023)
Possibility of more IMF loans, says Caretaker Finance Minister
On 17 November, Dawn reported, Shamshad Akhtar, Caretaker Finance Minister of Pakistan announced the postponement of USD 1.5 billion international bonds by the government while insisting that the country is in the state to go for more IMF loans in the upcoming year as the economy is still deteriorating. This proclamation came after the government and the IMF reached a staff-level meeting for the bailout. The government’s commitment to regular tariff adjustments, ranging from a planned gas price hike in January to prevent an overabundance of circular debt in both the gas and power sectors, was reiterated by Akhtar as a key element of the IMF agreement, during a press briefing. Her remarks added the need to bring the four state-owned enterprises under control with the recently approved SOE law’s financing and governance framework. She further stated the key factors for the postponement of the fund were high-interest rates and high-priced market conditions. To tackle the situation, she hoped to get fund disbursement from the World Bank for about USD 2 billion in the current fiscal year, by claiming “We are quite comfortable. (“No way out of IMF loans anytime soon, says Finance Minister Shamshad,” Dawn, 17 November 2023)
A decline in forex reserves
On 17 November, according to The Express Tribune, the State Bank of Pakistan reported that there was a decline in foreign exchange reserves of the country of USD 114.8 million. The current SBP’s foreign currency accounts are USD 7,396.7 million compared to USD 7,511.5 million. This plunge in reserves is due to the debt repayment by SBP. However, this decline witnesses a 1.53 per cent decline on a week-on-week basis report. Earlier, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves had grown significantly as a result of financial support from friendly countries and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) via the USD 3 billion standby arrangement (SBA). (“Forex reserves decline by $115 million,” The Express Tribune, 17 November 2023)
SIFC review on State Owned Enterprises (SOE)
On 17 November, Business Recorder reported that the 7th Apex Committee of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) examined and expressed acknowledgement of the state-owned enterprise (SOE) privatization process’s advancement. The meeting was hosted by Anwaar ul Haq Kakar, Caretaker Prime Minister to review and add insights to the SOE progress under SIFC. The meeting featured various chief ministries, the Chief of army staff, the federal cabinet and other high delegates. The ministries showcased the progress on various key sector-oriented projects under the umbrella of SIFC and encouraged the growth. The committee was also tasked with developing a comprehensive plan that would invest in pertinent industries to address the oil and gas issues sustainably. Further remarks were stated as giving instructions to maintain its rapid pace. (“SIFC satisfied with SOE sell-off progress,” Business Recorder, 17 November 2023)
POLITICS
Shehbaz Sharif was prepared to end the coalition administration
On 16 November, addressing a meeting with office bearers of the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif stated that after PTI leader Imran Khan was removed in a no-trust vote in April 2022, Shehbaz Sharif was prepared to dissolve the coalition government and call for elections. However, he claimed that the decision was modified at the last minute because "we did not want to give in" to alleged threats. He said, “Shehbaz Sharif was all set to resign and he had prepared his farewell speech as well. But we refused to give in before threats,”. Sharif declared that he supported liberalization and privatization policies wholeheartedly. He said that Motorways and dams will be privatized. He added that he supports the privatization of the PIA, but he disagrees with changing its name. The PML-N leader highlighted the accomplishments of his former administration. He emphasized that to help the masses, urgent economic measures were required. He assured the businesspeople that their input would be sought while formulating economic policy. He claimed that the country would resume its upward trajectory if his party were elected to power. (Zulqernain Tahir, ‘Shehbaz was ready for polls after Imran’s ouster’, Dawn, 17 November 2023; “Shehbaz Was Ready To Dissolve Govt, But I Stopped Him After Opposition's Ultimatum: Nawaz,” The Friday Times, 17 November 2023)
GDA calls for level playing field
On 16 November, the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) stated that if competing parties in Sindh are not provided with equal opportunities, the people will reject the next general election. In a consultative meeting at Pir Syed Sadruddin Shah Rashidi's home, the GDA’s chief coordinator released a press release expressing concern over the state of affairs wherein the “Election Commission of Pakistan is not ensuring a level playing field for political parties”. In his address to the gathering, Pir Rashidi warned that the people would not accept the outcome of the next general elections if Sindh's competing parties were not given equal opportunities. He noted that the provincial interim government was acting as the "B-team of Pakistan Peoples Party," while the ECP seemed uninterested. He declared that the GDA would make every effort to expedite contact and communication with the populace. He further added, “Victory in the upcoming elections is the destiny of GDA.” (Tahir Siddiqui, “GDA demands level-playing field for contesting parties in general elections,” Dawn, 17 November 2023)
“I will administer an oath to whoever the public chooses,” says Alvi
On 16 November, President Dr Arif Alvi declared that if PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif were to be elected as prime minister, he would administer the oath to him. He stated, “My post demands it. I will fulfil my post’s responsibility. It should be done. I will administer an oath to whoever the public chooses.” In the interview, Alvi was also questioned about whether the PTI's complaints about unequal treatment in the run-up to polls had been addressed by the interim administration in response to a letter he had written. He remarked that the administration has acknowledged and publicly promised to provide equal opportunities for all. According to Alvi, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and the prime minister's office were the two organizations with the most authority in this area. The president responded, "Up to the courts," when asked if imprisoned PTI Chairman Imran Khan might not be allowed to run for office. He added that he didn't want to make any assumptions about it. (“Will administer the oath to Nawaz if he is elected premier, says Alvi,” Dawn, 17 November 2023)
Longstanding political practices are the country’s biggest enemy says Bilawal
On 16 November, Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari made a passionate plea to all political parties, urging collective faith in the decisions made by the people. During a speech at an Abbottabad workers' convention, Bilawal fervently advocated for a change from established political leadership and the rise of a leader who had never held office before. He characterized the country’s "biggest enemy," the established political procedures, and the urgent need for a new approach to governing in his speech. Bilawal highlighted the extreme difficulties brought about by historically high rates of poverty and inflation and contended that, although fixing these problems required a solid intellectual basis, it was not an insurmountable undertaking. Bilawal, who expressed faith in the democratic process, encouraged political parties to have faith in the people of Pakistan. (Zubair Ayub, “Send old guard home, Bilawal tells people,” The Express Tribune, 16 November 2023)
ON AFGHANISTAN
UN chief’s statement on arbitrary treatment of Afghans by Pakistan
On 17 November, Volker Turk, the chief of the United Nations for Human Rights expressed his concern over Pakistan’s arbitrary treatment and detention of Afghans by renewing his appeal to the Pakistan government to defer the Afghan return programme until specific evaluation protocols and additional security measures mandated by International law are established, as well as to look into allegations of mistreatment made by law enforcement officials. Volker reiterated that the “arbitrary arrests and detentions are contrary to Pakistan’s obligations under international law.” Concurrently, the UNHCR and IOM reported jointly that there has been a notable rise in the number of Afghan nationals arrested between 15 September and 11 November, with undocumented Afghans being the most severely affected. (“UN concerned by ‘abuse’ of Afghans during deportation,” Dawn, 17 November 2023)
Mandating valid documents at the Afghanistan-Chaman border crossing
On 17 November, Dawn reported that the National Apex Committee, comprising civil and military officials, is all set to begin the implementation of a new visa policy at the Afghanistan-Chaman border crossing. This move has taken despite the ongoing protests by locals, traders and political parties. This development has been officially confirmed by Jan Achakzai, Balochistan Information Minister. He added that all arrangements for the implementation of the new policy were on its pace Improvements have been made to the passport facilities, and additional locations have opened for prompt delivery. The decision has been taken knowingly that it would hurt nearly 40,000 people who depend on this border for livelihood. (“New visa policy at Chaman border despite protest,” Dawn, 17 November 2023)
EXTERNAL
Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline agreement
On 17 November, Muhammad Ali, Energy Minister reported that the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline will be implemented as per an agreement put together that Pakistan and Iran have agreed to actively engage in developing. In this case, the talks would start within the next two to three weeks. The discussion was said to be held in Tehran. In the talks, the Iranian government has agreed to export more electricity to Pakistan for Gwadar and Chaman. Earlier, Pakistan was unable to build a pipeline due to US sanctions., The Iranian side argued during the negotiations that there could be no US sanctions because it was already exporting gas to Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, two countries exempt from sanctions. In that case, Pakistan would also be in the same boat. (“Pakistan, Iran agree to develop gas pipeline implementation plan,” The News, 17 November 2023)
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“Six senators abruptly tabled resolution in senate at the end of day on Monday calling for trial of civilians by military courts when only a dozen senators present in House. Although it wasn't on agenda the Chair allowed its tabling & got it passed without debate. Let it sink in”
- Farhatullah Babar
“3 weeks ago SC declared army trials of the accused of May 9 unconstitutional. It didn't mean accused off the hook; it only meant no Court martial of civilians. Where are the over 100 civilian detainees after SC verdict? Unlawful if still in custody of non civilian law enforcers.”
- Farhatullah Babar
“2023 has witnessed two disparate #IMF reviews – one unfolding over nearly six months, juxtaposed with the other, concluded in less than six hours shortly after the departure of the #IMF team from #Pakistan.”
- Ausnain Naveed Khan
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Editorial, ‘Rinse, repeat’
Dawn, 17 November 2023
“PAKISTAN’S ‘national’ leadership seems to discover a new eloquence whenever it sets foot in Balochistan. Every new claimant to the Islamabad throne comes bearing grandiose solutions to its many problems. But what has ever come of the big promises that are made to the Baloch people every few years?”
Sahibzada Riaz Noor, ‘Private gain and public good; illegality and immorality’
Dawn, 17 November 2023
“This manipulated, ostensibly ‘proper way of how the world operates’ is often unquestionably accepted by the unreflecting masses. This results from control by the hegemonic elite over means of creation of an ideology through education, workplace, press, TV, social media and other means of socialisation or propaganda, opinions that are continually consolidated, justifying the prevalent system of resource sharing, access or opportunity. That is why it is so difficult to counter or change the narrative which the elite construct justifying private gain over public benefit.”
Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, ‘Implementing fiscal strategy’
Dawn, 16 November 2023
“THE federal government has rectified what successive governments in Pakistan had overlooked for many years: announcing a National Climate Finance Strategy to help mainstream climate change in national policymaking processes.”
Husain Haqqani, ‘Learning from the past’
The News International, 16 November 2023
“Soon after Nawaz Sharif was convicted by an Accountability Court in July 2000, during the regime of General Pervez Musharraf, I wrote in a column that “In a country where successive regimes have pursued mistaken policies and wrongs have been committed on a wide scale, the most logical course of action is to try to bury the past.” The suggestion was aimed at finding a way to move on, not to forget history. Most of the young Pakistanis who have been brought up to hate conventional politicians have no recollection of past repression and injustices. They are angry only over what they perceive to be the mistreatment of their favourite leader. The key to changing Pakistan’s trajectory, however, lies in understanding, acknowledging, and learning from Pakistan’s difficult and tragic history.”
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